Why the West Rules For Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future

　　書開頭是一隻狗，原本是慈禧太后的狗，
　　1860年英軍攻進圓明園，把牠帶回倫敦，
　　獻給維多利亞女王，取名「戰利品」。
　　作者於是問出第一個問題：
　　為什麼鴉片戰爭結果是維多利亞女王賺到一隻愛犬，
　　而不是她丈夫亞伯特被押去北京做人質？

　　一個問題導向更多問題：
　　西方征服新大陸靠的是「槍炮、病菌與鋼鐵」，
　　槍炮、鋼鐵都源自中國，
　　中國亦不缺病菌，為什麼征服新大陸的卻是西方？
　　鄭和航海技術大大勝過哥倫布，為何沒橫越太平洋？
　　為什麼工業革命在英國發韌？

　　簡單問一句就是：西方憑什麼主宰世界？

　　從馬克斯以降，許多大師都給過解答，
　　從人種優劣論、文化決定論、地理決定論
　　到英雄史觀、狗熊史觀，不一而足。
　　本書推翻前人論點，另立新說。

　　前人回答「西方憑什麼」，往往只專注近世，只看文藝復興以後，本書卻堅持從遠古開始，上古、中古一直寫到二十一世紀。是全球史，也是以中國史為對 照的西方史，更是以西方史為對照的中國史。

　　區區五百頁篇幅，卻將中西大事一網打盡，旁徵博引，材料遍及埃及王室文書、中國古籍，還有最新科技的粒腺體DNA分析、南極冰帽底下的古氣候資料。故事精彩，論述亦往往出人意表。
 
　　嚴肅史家往往認為歷史 變數太多，不可能有法則可言。作者卻力排眾議，指出只要視野 夠廣，上溯史前萬年，就會辨識出諸多歷史法則。本書綿密的中西對照，揭露東西歷史大勢 其實驚人雷同，因為都遵循同樣的歷史法則：

　　地理決定發展，卻不決定未來。發展會改變地理的意義，一時劣勢另一時可能變優勢。

　　從埃及文明，到羅馬崛起，到英國締造海洋帝國，到中國變世界工廠，都是後發優勢的範例。

　　社會向上發展，一定會埋下阻礙發展的禍因。
　　發展遇到阻礙，不可能一直原地踏步。不突破，就是衰退或崩潰。
　　核心衰退，就淪為邊陲。邊陲發現後發優勢，就躍升為核心。

　 　　★本書中譯版《西方憑什麼：五萬年人類大歷史，破解中國落後之謎》由雅言文化出版。

A New York Times Notable Book for 2011

Sometime around 1750, English entrepreneurs unleashed the astounding energies of steam and coal, and the world was forever changed. The emergence of factories, railroads, and gunboats propelled the West''s rise to power in the nineteenth century, and the development of computers and nuclear weapons in the twentieth century secured its global supremacy. Now, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, many worry that the emerging economic power of China and India spells the end of the West as a superpower. In order to understand this possibility, we need to look back in time. Why has the West dominated the globe for the past two hundred years, and will its power last?

Describing the patterns of human history, the archaeologist and historian Ian Morris offers surprising new answers to both questions. It is not, he reveals, differences of race or culture, or even the strivings of great individuals, that explain Western dominance. It is the effects of geography on the everyday efforts of ordinary people as they deal with crises of resources, disease, migration, and climate. As geography and human ingenuity continue to interact, the world will change in astonishing ways, transforming Western rule in the process.

Deeply researched and brilliantly argued, Why the West Rules--for Now spans fifty thousand years of history and offers fresh insights on nearly every page. The book brings together the latest findings across disciplines--from ancient history to neuroscience--not only to explain why the West came to rule the world but also to predict what the future will bring in the next hundred years.

作者簡介

伊安‧摩里士(Ian Morris)

　　劍橋大學博士，曾任教於芝加哥大學，現為史丹福大學講座教授。英國國家學術院海外院士。原本專長是西方上古史，近年專攻全球史。已出版13本書。

　　IAN MORRIS is Willard Professor of Classics and History at Stanford University. He has published ten scholarly books, including, most recently, The Dynamics of Ancient Empires, and has directed excavations in Greece and Italy. He lives in the Santa Cruz Mountains in California.