Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

 

橋水基金創辦人瑞．達利歐Ray Dalio盛讚：「本書是一本必讀之作，不僅因其中含蓋了最重要的內容，更因為霍華是這世代投資領域最頂尖之人。」

 

　　投資市場漲跌起伏，這是眾人皆知的事實，而何時應該抽身，又或者該堅持下去？除了被認為是機運、藝術以及與未知的博奕。它的答案時常不是黑白分明，但最好的決策方式，必是深入地理解起落循環背後的理由，並循著它的走勢作出判斷。

 

　　精準地體認你正處在循環的什麼位置，掌握經濟、市場、企業的影響，你還需理解人類的心理運作及對應的投資行為，才可以真正掌握起落運行的模式。經由研究過往市場的變動，理解背後的原因，將能幫助你準備面對將至的變動，而不如人們被恐懼和欲望蒙蔽，作出錯誤的投資判斷。

 

　　本書包含了霍華．馬克斯多年來為橡樹客戶們操盤的觀察與心得記錄，包含了投資界最深刻的洞見與智慧，而現在你也可以從之學習投資之術的菁華，理解市場的運作模式之秘，幫助你獲得更好的成果。（文/博客來編譯）

A NEW YORK TIMES, WALL STREET JOURNAL, AND USA TODAY BESTSELLER

Named one of the Best Business Books of 2018 by Business Insider

The legendary investor shows how to identify and master the cycles that govern the markets.

We all know markets rise and fall, but when should you pull out, and when should you stay in? The answer is never black or white, but is best reached through a keen understanding of the reasons behind the rhythm of cycles. Confidence about where we are in a cycle comes when you learn the patterns of ups and downs that influence not just economics, markets and companies, but also human psychology and the investing behaviors that result.

If you study past cycles, understand their origins and remain alert for the next one, you will become keenly attuned to the investment environment as it changes. You'll be aware and prepared while others get blindsided by unexpected events or fall victim to emotions like fear and greed.

By following Marks's insights -- drawn in part from his iconic memos over the years to Oaktree's clients -- you can master these recurring patterns to have the opportunity to improve your results.

Author
 
　　HOWARD MARKS is cochairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management, a leading investment firm responsible for over ＄120 billion in assets. His previous book on investing, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor, was a critically acclaimed bestseller. He lives in New York City.