Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts

高勝算決策:如何在面對決定時,降低失誤,每次出手成功率都比對手高?

  • 作者: Duke, Annie
  • 原文出版社:Portfolio
  • 出版日期:2019/05/07
  • 語言:英文
  • 定價:760
  • 優惠價:73554
  • 優惠期限:2024年05月17日止
  • 運送方式:
  • 臺灣與離島
  • 海外
  • 可配送點:台灣、蘭嶼、綠島、澎湖、金門、馬祖
  • 可取貨點:台灣、蘭嶼、綠島、澎湖、金門、馬祖
載入中...
  • 分享
 

內容簡介

A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback. Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions.

Even the best decision doesn’t yield the best outcome every time. There’s always an element of luck that you can’t control, and there’s always information hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it’s difficult to say "I’m not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don’t always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don’t always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don’t, you’ll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You’ll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.

 

作者簡介

Annie Duke is a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, the winner of the 2004 Tournament of Champions and the only woman to win the NBC National Poker Heads Up Championship. Now, as a professional speaker and decision strategist, she merges her poker expertise with her cognitive psychology graduate work at UPenn. She is a founder of How I Decide, a non-profit that creates curricula and tools to improve decision making and critical thinking skills for under-served middle schoolers.

 

詳細資料

  • ISBN:9780735216372
  • 規格:平裝 / 288頁 / 20.6 x 13.7 x 2 cm / 普通級 / 初版
  • 出版地:美國
 

特惠贈品

載入中...

最近瀏覽商品

 

相關活動

  • 從「格」的概念出發|
 

購物說明

外文館商品版本:商品之書封,為出版社提供之樣本。實際出貨商品,以出版社所提供之現有版本為主。關於外文書裝訂、版本上的差異,請參考【外文書的小知識】。

調貨時間:無庫存之商品,在您完成訂單程序之後,將以空運的方式為您下單調貨。原則上約14~20個工作天可以取書(若有將延遲另行告知)。為了縮短等待的時間,建議您將外文書與其它商品分開下單,以獲得最快的取貨速度,但若是海外專案進口的外文商品,調貨時間約1~2個月。 

若您具有法人身份為常態性且大量購書者,或有特殊作業需求,建議您可洽詢「企業採購」。 

退換貨說明 

會員所購買的商品均享有到貨十天的猶豫期(含例假日)。退回之商品必須於猶豫期內寄回。 

辦理退換貨時,商品必須是全新狀態與完整包裝(請注意保持商品本體、配件、贈品、保證書、原廠包裝及所有附隨文件或資料的完整性,切勿缺漏任何配件或損毀原廠外盒)。退回商品無法回復原狀者,恐將影響退貨權益或需負擔部分費用。 

訂購本商品前請務必詳閱商品退換貨原則 

  • PRHUS
  • 認知書展