How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle (Principles)

龐大的政府債務，是否正在威脅美國的集體福祉？債務的增長有極限嗎？一個像美國這樣的重要儲備貨幣國家，有可能破產嗎？──如果答案是肯定的，那會是什麼樣的情景？

政治人物、政策制定者與投資人，數十年來不斷爭辯這些問題，卻始終沒有定論。曾精準預測2008金融危機、2010至2012年歐債危機的知名投資人瑞．達利歐，首度詳細分享他對於「大債週期」的看法。了解這個循環，對於掌握債務議題相關的政策制定、投資方向，以及洞察現況與未來至關重要，達利歐的大債週期模型，對應美國、歐洲、日本和中國所面對的債務問題，更提供了出人意料的簡明解法。

本書同時也解析了債務問題與其他力量之間的關係，包括各國內政治角力、國際地緣政治競爭、天災和科技。這些因素，共同形成了達利歐所稱，正在影響世界秩序的「整體大週期變化」。透過閱讀本書，讀者將能夠更清楚理解當前局勢，以及應對之道。(文/博客來編譯)

#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER

＂Advance copies of Ray Dalio’s new book about how countries go broke have become a hot read in Washington.＂ --The New York Times

＂This book is a gift to humanity....Ray provides a solution to what is the biggest and most certain threat to our prosperity.＂ --Henry M. Paulson Jr.

＂An invaluable resource for policymakers, investors, and citizens.＂ --Lawrence H. Summers

An urgent warning about the American economy from Ray Dalio, the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles.

Do big government debts threaten our collective well-being? Are there limits to debt growth? Can a big, important reserve currency country like the United States really go broke--and what would that look like?

For decades, politicians, policymakers, and investors have debated these questions, but the answers have eluded them. In this groundbreaking book, Ray Dalio, one of the greatest investors of our time who anticipated the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2010-12 European debt crisis, shares for the first time his detailed explanation of what he calls the ＂Big Debt Cycle.＂ Understanding this cycle is critical for helping policymakers, investors, and the general public grasp where we are and where we are headed with the debt issue. Dalio’s model points toward surprisingly straightforward solutions for dealing with the debt problems that the US, Europe, Japan, and China face today.

How Countries Go Broke also shows how these debt problems are related to the other forces--political within countries, geopolitical between countries, natural (droughts, floods, and pandemics), and technological (most importantly, AI)--that together are causing what Dalio calls the ＂Overall Big Cycle＂ changes in the world order. By reading this book, you will improve your understanding of what’s happening now and what to do about it.

Ray Dalio is Founder, Co-CIO and Member of the Bridgewater Board, which, over the last forty years, has become the largest and best-performing hedge fund in the world. Dalio has appeared on the Time 100 list of the most influential people in the world as well as the Bloomberg Markets list of the 50 most influential people. He is also #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles, Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises, and Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. He lives with his family in Connecticut.