The Winner’s Curse: Anomalies in Behavioral Economics

 
        三十多年前，《推力》共同作者、諾貝爾經濟學獎得主理查‧塞勒，與經濟學大師丹尼爾‧康納曼，以及知名認知心理學家阿莫斯‧特沃斯基等人，共同為〈異常現象〉（Anomalies）專欄執筆。他們大膽挑戰傳統經濟學中「人類是自利、理性的最佳化者」的核心假設，為「行為經濟學」奠定基礎。
 
       時隔三十年，如今理查‧塞勒與芝加哥大學商學院教授艾力克斯‧伊瑪斯（Alex O. Imas）攜手，推出《贏家的詛咒：行為經濟學裡的異常現象》，帶領讀者重新審視行為經濟學的發展脈絡——從過去到現在，並展望未來。
 
       為什麼人們在沒有明顯動機的情況下，仍選擇彼此合作？
為什麼我們會執著於幾乎毫無價值的物品？
為什麼拍賣的贏家，內心卻往往感到失望？
 
       本書以當年的〈異常現象〉專欄為起點，書中每個章節不僅回顧了當年的原創洞見，更逐一檢視並補充行為經濟學最新的研究成果與案例，再次驗證從人們的退休儲蓄決策到如何處理信用卡債務，非理性行為的異象無處不在，甚至連專家也無法倖免。無論是職業高爾夫球選手的表現，或專業投資經理人買賣股票的決策，都受到損失規避（loss aversion）的影響。在這個迷因股與狗狗幣盛行的時代，我們很難再說金融市場是高度有效的，好消息是，這些「異象」變得更加有趣了。
 
       無論您是這領域的門外漢，還是專業人士，《贏家的詛咒》深入淺出、嚴謹又實用的分析，都將帶領讀者對行為經濟學，有更深一層的了解。(文/博客來編譯)

       Nobel Prize winner Richard H. Thaler and rising star economist Alex O. Imas explore the past, present, and cutting-edge future in behavioral economics in The Winner’s Curse.

       Why do people cooperate with one another when they have no obvious motivation to do so? Why do we hold on to possessions of little value? And why is the winner of an auction so often disappointed?

       Over thirty years ago, Richard H. Thaler introduced readers to behavioral economics in his seminal Anomalies column, written with collaborators including Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. These provocative articles challenged the fundamental idea at the heart of economics that people are selfish, rational optimizers, and provided the foundation for what became behavioral economics. That was then.

       Now, three decades later, Thaler has teamed up with economist Alex O. Imas to write a new book with an original and creative format. Each chapter starts with an original Anomaly, retaining the spirit of its time stamp. Then, shifting to the present, the authors provide updates to each, asking how the original findings have held up and how the field has evolved since then.

       It turns out that the original findings not only hold up well, but they show up almost everywhere. Anomalies pop up in people’s decisions to save for retirement and how they carry outstanding credit card debt. Even experts fail to optimize. The key concept of loss aversion explains missed putts by PGA pros and the selection of which stocks to sell by portfolio managers. In this era of meme stocks and Dogecoin, it is hard to defend the view that financial markets are highly efficient. The good news, however, is that the anomalies have gotten funnier.

       With both readability and rigor, The Winner’s Curse is for anyone, from those with a cursory understanding of economics to fellow economists. Each chapter provides a key insight into human behavior so readers learn how to better understand the choices made by their friends, colleagues, and customers, and they might just become better at making decisions themselves. Only recommended for humans.

Richard H. Thaler received the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. He is a distinguished professor of economics and behavioral science at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business and director of the University of Chicago’s Center for Decision Research. He is the New York Times bestselling coauthor of Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness (with Cass Sunstein) and the author of Misbehaving and Quasi Rational Economics. He is also one in a rotating team of economists who writes for TheNew York Times ＂Economic View＂ column.

Alex O. Imas is an associate professor of behavioral science and economics at the University of Chicago. He is the recipient of the 2023 Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, the Review of Financial Studies Rising Scholar Award, the New Investigator Award from the Behavioral Science and Policy Association, the Hillel Einhorn New Investigator Award from the Society of Judgment and Decision Making, the Distinguished CESifo Affiliate Award, and the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. Previously, he was assistant professor of behavioral economics at Carnegie Mellon University.