這本書和快思慢想最大的區別,是將重點放在人類決策錯誤 (error) 的另一個面向,也就是雜訊上。錯誤由偏誤 (bias) 和雜訊(noise) 組成,前者是快思慢想的重點,而後者則是雜訊這本書的主角。細節我在這邊就不多說,免得劇透。總之,全書金句不少,譬如以下三段我就很喜歡;(1) Sure enough, some people are more receptive than others to bullshit. They can be impressed by "seemingly impressive assertions that are presented as true and meaningful but are actually vacuous." (p. 88)
(2) When we see three, ten, or twenty people embracing some conclusion...We might think that their shared agreement reflects collective wisdom, even if it reflects the initial views of just a few people...informational cascades can lead groups of people in truly terrible directions. (p. 102)
(3) But the evidence suggests that if the goal is to reduce error, it is better for leaders (and others) to remain open to counterarguments and to know that they might be wrong. If they end up being decisive, it is at the end of a process, not at the start. (p. 235)
最後,如果一定要雞蛋裡挑骨頭的話, 那麼我覺得這本書有一個瑕疵,那就是作者仍然用標準差來度量雜訊, 即使他們一開頭就提到雜訊是未知, 甚至是不可知的 (unknown or even unknowable, p. 5)! 不過瑕不掩瑜,這本書仍然值得大力推薦,無論你喜歡的是心理學、經濟學、企管、法律、甚至是統計,都可以從此書學到一些有趣的知識和另類的想法,而且每章最後照例有簡單的摘要,書的封面又出現了那支短短的鉛筆,這些都延續著 Kahneman 的獨特風格呢!
這本書和快思慢想最大的區別,是將重點放在人類決策錯誤 (error) 的另一個面向,也就是雜訊上。錯誤由偏誤 (bias) 和雜訊(noise) 組成,前者是快思慢想的重點,而後者則是雜訊這本書的主角。細節我在這邊就不多說,免得劇透。總之,全書金句不少,譬如以下三段我就很喜歡;(1) Sure enough, some people are more receptive than others to bullshit. They can be impressed by "seemingly impressive assertions that are presented as true and meaningful but are actually vacuous." (p. 88)
(2) When we see three, ten, or twenty people embracing some conclusion...We might think that their shared agreement reflects collective wisdom, even if it reflects the initial views of just a few people...informational cascades can lead groups of people in truly terrible directions. (p. 102)
(3) But the evidence suggests that if the goal is to reduce error, it is better for leaders (and others) to remain open to counterarguments and to know that they might be wrong. If they end up being decisive, it is at the end of a process, not at the start. (p. 235)
最後,如果一定要雞蛋裡挑骨頭的話, 那麼我覺得這本書有一個瑕疵,那就是作者仍然用標準差來度量雜訊, 即使他們一開頭就提到雜訊是未知, 甚至是不可知的 (unknown or even unknowable, p. 5)! 不過瑕不掩瑜,這本書仍然值得大力推薦,無論你喜歡的是心理學、經濟學、企管、法律、甚至是統計,都可以從此書學到一些有趣的知識和另類的想法,而且每章最後照例有簡單的摘要,書的封面又出現了那支短短的鉛筆,這些都延續著 Kahneman 的獨特風格呢!