Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events

　　在人們熟知的暢銷書《釣愚》中，席勒讓我們明白，在自由市場機制裡，人們享有了選擇的自由，但於此同時，也為心懷貪念與惡意的人們創造機會，影響人們的決定。而必須仰賴政府、法規、企業的自我規束制止這些危險的發生。

 　　在這短暫的數年之中，我們已進入網路傳媒已躍升足以左右選戰，轉動民意的時代，影響國際經濟的事件層出不窮。單一個人或一小群體產出的訊息，訊息即可能擴散蔓延，成為牽動世界的起點。縱觀過往，不乏影響個人進而帶動集體經濟行為的著名事件，這種種即是席勒所謂的「故事經濟學Narrative Economics」，改寫以往經濟學的思維──把口耳相傳的訊息，或種種針對經濟現象、發展的說法，這些「故事」的重要性，放入經濟學的關鍵考量之中。

　　下列這些你應該不陌生的傳聞：科技股只會漲不會跌啦！房價永遠哪可能往下啊！某某企業過度擴張，要倒了！財經消息在今天迅速且漫天蓋地而來，讓人們深信不疑，並因此買進特定股票、基金，安排自己的理財計劃，影響整個經濟市場；《釣愚》中警示人們的危機，現在已進化成為影響更深遠及龐大的世界性現象，甚至可能導致戰爭、大量失業人口及貧富差距的擴大，卻少有經濟學家深入研究「故事」在今日如何流動，並推動經濟的進程。

 　　濃縮對經濟現象深刻而細膩的觀察，席勒帶我們探討經濟過分自信、經濟恐慌、房地產泡沫化、美國夢及比特幣等事件帶來的影響，讓我們學會看待這些事件背後的意義。研讀這些案例能讓我們更學會如何預知並及早防範可能的風險，進一步將經濟危機、經濟大衰退、經濟大蕭條等其經濟災害所帶來的損失降到最低。讓每個被故事環繞的你我，在其中看見危險，學習自我保護。（文/博客來編譯）

From Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller, a groundbreaking account of how stories help drive economic events-and why financial panics can spread like epidemic viruses

In a world in which internet troll farms attempt to influence foreign elections, can we afford to ignore the power of viral stories to affect economies? In this groundbreaking book, Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller offers a new way to think about the economy and economic change. Using a rich array of historical examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that affect individual and collective economic behavior-what he calls ＂narrative economics＂-has the potential to vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises, recessions, depressions, and other major economic events.

Spread through the public in the form of popular stories, ideas can go viral and move markets-whether it’s the belief that tech stocks can only go up, that housing prices never fall, or that some firms are too big to fail. Whether true or false, stories like these-transmitted by word of mouth, by the news media, and increasingly by social media-drive the economy by driving our decisions about how and where to invest, how much to spend and save, and more. But despite the obvious importance of such stories, most economists have paid little attention to them. Narrative Economics sets out to change that by laying the foundation for a way of understanding how stories help propel economic events that have had led to war, mass unemployment, and increased inequality.

The stories people tell-about economic confidence or panic, housing booms, the American dream, or Bitcoin-affect economic outcomes. Narrative Economics explains how we can begin to take these stories seriously. It may be Robert Shiller’s most important book to date.

Author
 
　　Robert J. Shiller is a Nobel Prize–winning economist, the author of the New York Times bestseller Irrational Exuberance, and the coauthor, with George A. Akerlof, of Phishing for Phools and Animal Spirits, among other books (all Princeton). He is Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and a regular contributor to the New York Times. He lives in New Haven, Connecticut. Twitter @RobertJShiller